PREVIEW: The look of the Big Sky race changed significantly between Thursday and Sunday. It is a true dogfight. With perhaps the exception of the bottom rung, where Sacramento State has sole possession of last place at 1-5.
That’s scary for Montana fans. Because -- after another last-second, disheartening setback to Idaho State -- a Montana loss to the visiting Weber State Wildcats puts the Grizzlies much closer to Sacramento State than to any other team in the conference.
Sunday’s 2 p.m. matchup against the Wildcats is critical for the Grizzlies and that’s explained at the end of this scouting report.
PHOTO: Cameron Rundles drives against Logan Kinghorn in Montana's 56-54 loss Thursday.
A win puts Montana even in conference play. Which isn’t bad, because the Grizzlies play the second half of conference schedule with an attractive home-dominated slate. A loss simply forfeits that advantage.
MONTANA v.s WEBER STATE
Game time is 2 p.m., with radio coverage provided by KGVO and announcer Mick Holien. TV -- The game will be broadcast on Altitude Sports, which can be found at: Channel 59 on Bresnan Cable, Channel 410 on Dish Network, and Channel 644 on DirecTV. Fans with PCs and Internet access can view a video stream of the game from Big Sky Television (www.bigskytv.org) for a fee. Those who have macs, like me, are out of luck.
THE GAME: Weber State at University of Montana, at 2 p.m.
RECORDS: Weber State is 8-8. The Wildcats have won five of their last seven games, and have a 3-1 Big Sky Conference record.
The Wildcats have wins against Utah State (78-71), Cal State Bakersfield (two--61-56 and 74-43), Montana Western (94-84), San Francisco (62-54), Portland State (73-68), Eastern Washington (74-64), and Montana State (78-76). The Wildcats have lost games to: Cal State San Bernadino (71-59), Youngstown State (69-66), Utah (72-52), Illinois (78-61), BYU (72-57), San Francisco (67-65), New Mexico (62-32), and Northern Colorado (55-52).
Montana takes a 7-10 record into the game with losses to Gonzaga, Washington State, Cal State Fullerton (2), Portland, Pacific, Santa Clara, Montana State, Northern Arizona and Idaho State. The Grizzlies have beaten Colorado State (75-39), Montana State Northern (72-47), South Dakota State (70-61), Air Force (59-57), Mississippi Valley State (69-62) and Montana Tech (91-36). Last Game: Lost 56-54 at home to Idaho State.
The Grizzlies are 2-8 since claiming second place in the Washington State Cougar Classic over Thanksgiving weekend.
THE COACH: Weber State Coach, Randy Rahe led the Wildcats to a Big Sky Conference regular season and tournament championship in his first year at Weber State, and was named Big Sky Conference Coach of the Year and the USBWA District 7 Coach of the Year. Rahe’s current record at WSU is 27-20 (.574) overall and 13-6 (.684) in Big Sky Conference regular season games. Before taking the helm at WSU, Rahe served two years as an assistant coach at the University of Utah under Ray Giacoletti. Prior to that, he was an assistant under Coach Stew Morrill at Utah State for six seasons and at Colorado State for seven seasons.
COACHING HISTORY -- Rahe and Tinkle have an interesting history by virtue of their separate association with former Montana Head Coach Stew Morrill, who is currently head coach at Utah State. Tinkle played two years under Morrill, earning Griz MVP awards in leading Montana to back-to-back 18-11 seasons. Rahe served as Morrill’s assistant at Colorado State and Utah State before moving on to Utah as an assistant. before heading to Weber State as head coach.
HISTORY: Weber State leads series 59-43 over Montana. The 43 Montana wins is best record of any Big Sky team against the Wildcats. The Grizzlies won 90-86 in overtime in Missoula last year. Matt Martin hit 7-for-10 shots from three-point range and scored 28 points in the win. The win was a catalyst that turned the Grizzlies’ season around; they went on to place third in regular season play. Montana and Weber State rank #1 and #2 in Big Sky Conference wins: the Griz have an all-time record of 413-247 (.624), while the Wildcats are 399-271 (.597)
PERSONNEL: Three seniors -- Dezmon Harris, Arturus Valeika and Brody Van Brocklin -- have started in at least 15 of the Wildcats’ 16 games, and a fourth senior, Tyler Billings, is often the first forward off of the bench. But Rahe has experimented with several starting combinations and has eight players who average a minimum of 17 minutes per game. Nonetheless, the Wildcats -- like Griz opponents MSU, NAU and Sac State -- rely on one dominant player. If shooting guard Harris has a good game, the Wildcats usually win. Harris took control of the game (at point) in the final minutes against the Bobcats and literally sealed the win for WSU. No other Wildcat player is close to Harris’ 16.5 conference average (10.4 in all games). Power forward Valeika has not produced offensively for the Wildcats this year (6.0 ppg average), but is the conference rebounding leader with an average of nine per game. Sophomore 6’-8” post Steve Panos has stepped up offensively during league play, with an average of 10 points per game. Seven Wildcat players score between six and 10 points per game.
THE TEAM: Rahe’s Wildcats were picked by several publications to defend their Big Sky Crown, but struggled in early non-conference play. But the Wildcats have turned things around, winning five of their last seven, and have forged a 3-1 record in Big Sky Conference play, with home wins against Eastern Washington and Portland State, a road win against the Bobcats Thursday. WSU’s single loss is a setback at Northern Colorado.
If one thing can be said about Rahe’s Wildcats it’s this: Weber State absorbed some punishment during nonconference play, but Rahe gave a lot of minutes to 8+ players and he’s now seeing results with solid contributions up and down the lineup. Despite their modest overall record, the Wildcats are in very good position to battle for the Big Sky Conference crown.
HOW TO BEAT THE WILDCATS: Dezmon Harris is one of the premier players in the Big Sky and the Griz will need to contain him. Montana has -- in Ceylon Elgin-Taylor and Ryan Staudacher -- players capable of containing WSU’s back court. But far more important is the mandate for Montana to dominate the key defensively and to beat or match WSU in rebounding. The other critical stat is shooting percentage, because Montana can no longer afford a sub-40% shooting night in league play.
On defense -- The Wildcats have lost their compsure In several games when they could not easily enter their half court offense. Montana’s guard defense (and they’re good enough) can disrupt the Wildcats by extending point guard Brody Van Brocklin, or Harris back several feet. Low block defense is also critical, because Montana has given up points-in-the-paint too easily in recent games. I believe the Wildcats are another team that Montana freshman post Brian Qvale can be effective against defensively. More mid-key defensive presence is critical.
PHOTO: Freshman post Brian Qvale takes down a rebound against Idaho State in Montana's two point loss.
On offense -- Get good shots early.That sounds dumb, but it’s true. Montana’s shooting percentage is down partly because so many shots are being rushed to beat an expiring shot clock. If the low block offense isn’t opening up, perhaps the Griz need to run some high post screens and spring the guards to knock a few down. That’s what the Bengals did early against the Griz and it worked. That’s certainly no worse than taking a rushed (and bad) shot because there’s no time left on the clock.
Individuals -- Last year’s home win over Weber State was fun because Matt Martin simply decided to shoot. He nailed seven treys, brought the Griz back from the dead, and Montana won an exciting game in overtime. This time it would be great fun to see Matt, and Cameron Rundles and Ryan Staudacher light it up early. These guys need to have some fun shooting the ball.
Lastly -- Ok, I’ll say it. It’s so early, but this is a must-win game. Here’s why: Since November 29, Montana has managed to lose five games where they either had a lead or were in a position to win. Ouch. That means that Montana is probably, or may be, a better team than they appear to be on paper. Ok, I’ll buy that.
But “what-ifs” simply don’t count. Scores and statistics -- which we all read on paper -- are what count. And, on paper, another loss will put Montana squarely in last place, tied with Sacramento State as one of two teams in danger of not qualifying for the conference playoffs.
HEALTH: Good.
